Sub-national jurisdictions are promoted as strategic levels of governance for achieving reduced deforestation objectivesJurisdictional approaches (JA) emerged as government-led, holistic approaches to forest and land use management across one or more legally defined territoriesDespite increasing popularity amongst the science and practitioner communities, there is a lack of robust empirical data documenting their effectiveness in delivering environmental, social and economic outcomesIn this paper, we contend that further clarification of the JA concept would help its evaluationMore specifically, we suggest that current evaluation practices of JA would be strengthened if they were based on a theory of change clarifying the causal linkages between the interventions associated with a given JA and their effectsBy integrating select empirical knowledge on JA with a selection of middle-range theories from the literature on collective environmental governance, we design a generic theory of change for JA, which is articulated around two intermediary outcomes, namely the emergence of collaboration and social learningWe also formulate hypotheses regarding the conditions that enable or hinder these collective intermediary outcomes of JAsWe acknowledge that another fundamental challenge for JAs is to remove or block the external contradicting signals that still fundamentally drive deforestationThus, JA interventions need to operate not only at the jurisdictional level, but also beyond.
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